1) Kevin Durant is the best natural scorer—possibly in the history of the NBA. He’s also 24 years-old and only getting smarter and stronger. That should scare people almost as much as LeBron in the post does.

2) Russell Westbrook might get even more opportunities to drive to the hole with Harden gone. I think he’s gonna take even more shots this year, and score even more since he’s become lethal pull-up shooter; the only person better at putting the ball in the bucket will be his teammate, Durant.

Not to mention the fact Serge Ibaka led the league in blocks last year, and he’s improved every year. Everyone is so young still, even with the loss of Harden. Eric Maynor comes back to spell relief for Westbrook, and Maynor is a better defender. Nick Collison lost his second team pick and roll partner to Houston, but he’s still a good shooter and a heady player that understands the game and knows how to sneak inside for offensive boards.

For Dwight, they’ve still got Kendrick Perkins, and for Kobe they’ve got Thabo. For Nash, they’ve got Russell and for Metta W_____ P____, they’ve got the possible 2013 NBA MVP. I like the Thunder’s chances against the Lakers and everyone else. I wouldn’t sleep on them using the Lakers signings plus the Heat loss to spur them to something like 64 wins. They’ve got the talent and the motivation now. Everyone believes they’ve traded their way to second tier status behind the Lakers. They know better.

Portland Trail Blazers

Over/Under 33 1/2 - OVER

A good way to talk yourself into the over for this Trail Blazers team is the core of LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, and rookie point guard, Damian Lilliard. They’ve also got J. J. Hickson backing up Aldridge. I don’t really want to spend time talking about their other role players and back-ups because they’re not very good, but are they so bad they’ll lose 50 games this season? Nope. I don’t like the Blazers as a possible playoff contender, but they’ll be better than 33 wins, I think.

Aldridge should be considered a top 20 player in the NBA and Batum just signed for a shit ton of money, so you gotta hope his impressive advanced stats the last couple seasons, continue to improve even after he got paid (you never know when a player signs that first big $ deal—even though I think Hibbert will continue to improve). Damian Lillard played so well in the preseason, a lot of people are saying the ROY contest won’t just be handed to Anthony Davis.

I’m not happy about betting on Terry Stotts, but maybe he’s just been saddled with shitty teams in Milwaukee and elsewhere. I want to believe in this team because the Oregon fans are impressive, if whiny, and I want basketball to excel in the pacific northwest, which is really beautiful country. Why am I including this regional bias in a season preview? Because I’m tired of writing these (I did them all today), and I haven’t been able to watch as much of CLE-WAS and MIA-BOS as I’d have liked. At least I know the league pass is working.

Utah Jazz

Over/Under 43 1/2 - UNDER

OK, Paul Millsap, Al Jefferson and Marvin Williams are a good front court and Williams fits in well with Millsap and Jefferson since he doesn’t dominate the ball or try for his own shot that much. Either Millsap or Jefferson will get traded this year, or at some point, since their offensive games overlap so badly, but they’re still a lot to handle. Derrick Favors and a newly trim Enes Kanter backing them up means they’ve got one of the best starting and back-up front-court players in the league.

I hate the Jazz backcourt after losing Devin Harris (and I hate Harris’ schizophrenic game), and I’m not sold that Mo Williams is now underrated after being overrated in Cleveland. Gordon Hayward was a specter against San Antonio last year, and I’m not sure he’s got what it takes to be a successful starter in this league if the playoffs are gonna terrify him so much.

I just don’t really believe in this Jazz team. I know a lot of people are really high on them, and that’s fine because Millsap and Jefferson are excellent, but I don’t think they’re good enough to be .500 in the West.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Over/Under 39 1/2 - OVER

This is based off Kevin Love coming back and missing only 10 games; Ricky Rubio coming back some time in December and picking up right where he left off; Brandon Roy and Andrei Kirilenko getting to 80% of where they were 4 years ago, and Rick Adelman continuing to look similar to Liam Neeson in “The Grey.”

This is definitely wishful thinking on my part, but I think they can get back to where they were last season, and even beyond. I’m listening to Reggie Miller right now as he explains how the Lakers’ Princeton Offense is a continuation of the Sacramento Kings in the early aughts, and I wanted to break my girlfriend’s TV (which would lose me the rest of the late game, and my girlfriend). The Timberwolves are the continuation of those Kings teams, primarily because of Adelman, but also because Rubio and Love both play that brand of basketball, even though Love is talented enough to shoot the ball 35 times a game, and no one in Minnesota except his teammates would care.

I’m a litle concerned at the seemingly Xeroxed skin color of their rotation, but this is a preview and not a meditation on race and the Minnesota area, which is lovely by the way.

Luke Ridnour is a quality point guard in the mean time, and JJ Barea can drop some buckets off the bench when the team needs a fiery spark plug under six feet tall. Derrick Williams and Nikola Pekovic will get some offensive touches with Love on the bench, and I’m not worried at all. This Minnesota team will be competing for a playoff berth at the end of the year. I think.

Denver Nuggets

Over/Under 51 1/2 - UNDER

I really love this team, and I’d guess so does George Karl. But what happens when they need a bucket late in a playoff game, and the defense has tightened? Who scores when it becomes really tough to score? The only way to attack that problem is to run, run and run some more. Ty Lawson will run this team until they’re fed up with running, and then Karl will make them run again.

JaVale McGee gives them length up front, but he’s still JaVale McGee (no matter how many profiles are done for Sports Illustrated and ESPN Mag). Timofey Mozgov and Kosta Koufas are some more big bodies when McGee gets in trouble. Maybe Kenneth Faried is a little undersized for power forward, but even if some of the writing about Faried is hyperbolic, it’s not undeserved. The guy just screams energy, like the gif of Russell Westbrook does above. He’s already been spotted flying for an oop from Andre Miller, and I’m pretty sure he’s gonna average a double-double and possibly contend for the rebounding title. Danilo Galinari is a deadeye shooter and possibly this team’s best offensive player. He’s too quick for most power forwards, but can be taken advantage of on the block by some bigger ones.

To augment this frontcourt we’ve got Andre Iguodala: the backbone of Philly’s dominating defense last season and with Memphis’ Tony Allen one of the two best perimeter defenders in the league. Then there’s Ty Lawson, a top 10 point now, who can drop 30 and dish for 15; he will run you silly up and down his home court until your lungs beg for oxygen, then he’ll cackle and take off again.

This is a team in George Karl’s image and just like Melo’s New York team, it’s on him if they fail.

*All bets via Bovada

29 notes

6 months ago

Atlantic Division Preview*

New York Knicks

Over/Under 45 1/2 - UNDER

I just don’t like this Knicks team. I don’t like what’s happening with Amare’s body. I don’t like Melo’s smug expression when he scores a bucket after 400 pump fakes, 20 seconds of the shot clock, and with his team down by 17 points. I don’t like all the Nets gear I’m seeing around Brooklyn. I don’t like J.R. Smith’s petulance about coming off the bench. I don’t like Tyson Chandler’s knee. I don’t like Marcus Camby’s birth certificate. I don’t like what Rasheed Wallace smells like after a lone wind sprint. I don’t like what Jason Kidd smells like when he’s driving home after a home win. I don’t like how much Knicks fans are looking forward to Iman Shumpert coming back. I don’t like Raymond Felton’s penchant for kit kats. I don’t like Steve Novak’s ability to stay in front of his man. I like Ronnie Brewer. I loathe James Dolan. I am a Knicks fan, hear my ro—ahh forget it.

Brooklyn Nets

Over/Under 44 1/2 - UNDER

I wrote about the Nets for Sports Grid, but their site is down, so I’ll try and focus on why their team’s current collection of players displeases me so much, and why they’re bound to disappoint the local denizens in my neighborhood.

They can’t play defense. Like, at all. Brook Lopez is the worst rebounder/defender in the world. I’m also including all the other 7-footers that aren’t in the NBA. He’s that bad. Maybe I’m giving him too hard a time, but someone has to. Luckily for Brooklynites, Prokhorov doesn’t give a crap how much money he spends, so the fact the new-look Nets have committed over a hundred million dollars to Gerald Wallace, Brook Lopez, Kris Humphries and perpetual underachiever, Joe Johnson, doesn’t matter.

Deron Williams is the fuclrum of this team. If he’s back to Utah Jazz form, and also svelte (something I didn’t see in preseason), he could be good enough to get this team to the second round of the playoffs. If not, they’ll struggle to make the playoffs, where they’ll barely manage to win a playoff game. It’s just about the same as my Knicks, but with a lot more hype. Spike Lee still sits at the Garden, for the record.

Boston Celtics

Over/Under 50 1/2 - OVER

I’m watching them right now, and they’re the second best team in the east and possibly the second best team in the league. They’re playing Miami tough, and if Rondo ever figures out how he can pull up whenever he wants for an open jumper, then they could become impossible to stop.

Right now, Pierce is healthy, Garnett is healthy, and they’re both pissed at Ray Allen. They live for this ish, and you know the war of words between Rondo and Allen after Allen’s departure to South Beach, is going to be on everyone’s mind all season. It is tonight for sure. I’m looking forward to Chuck at halftime to weight in on all the bullshit from the off-season.

But back to the Celtics. Courtney Lee and Jason Terry were really important pickups in the off-season. Once Avery Bradley gets back in shape and on the court, they’re gonna be re-tooled to take another run at Miami’s superstars. Rondo has the attitude every Bostonian likes to see when they play ‘Bron and Co. and everyone is just waiting to see a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals. I don’t see anything to stop either team from getting there.

Philadelphia 76ers

Over/Under 45 1/2 - UNDER

Ughhh. My sister’s fiance is from Pennsylvania and since they live in Philaldelphia’s hip, Northern Liberties area, they’re of course Sixers fans. Thankfully, Andrew Bynum has successfully ended the Sixers-Knicks debate that rages between us. I don’t like the Knicks, but I dislike them less than I do Andrew Bynum. He has shown absolutely zero indications he’s got the heart, hustle and head to be the best player on a serious playoff team.

Losing Lou Williams’ offense and Elton Brand’s defense doesn’t help, either. Sure, Jrue Holiday, is young and getting better, but he’s still pretty bad at dribble-driving to the bucket and has a tendency to flit around the perimeter all game, unless defenders fly out at him after doubling down low (which, without Bynum, prolly won’t happen).

Jason Richardson is kind of like Ronnie Brewer, in that he’s one of the lone players I enjoy on this team, just like Brewer is for my Knicks, but he’s getting old. Evan Turner is supposed to be a top player now, after a mildly successful postseason run, but he’s always struck me as immature, so we’ll have to see. According to a lot of metrics guys, he’s really unefficient when he’s got the ball, and Philly plays worse when he’s shouldering a high offensive load.

I’m gonna win my bet: whichever team betweem the Knicks-Sixers possesses the higher win percentage come Christmas time, is the jersey rocked by the loser of the bet. Christmas is gonna be fun.

Toronto Raptors

Over/Under 33 1/2 - OVER

I really like this team. I think they might make the playoffs. I think Kyle Lowry is underrated, and he might be better than Jeremy Lin, the man who replaced him in Houston this off-season; AND better than Goran Dragic, the man who replaced him during his last season in Houston. He’s a really tough defender and a solid point guard that can get in the lane to score or assist, and who doesn’t turn the ball over very frequently.

Aside from their point guard, who I fawn too much about, they’ve got a score first, defend later power forward in Andrea Bargnani, and a center that I just know I’m gonna love: Jonas Valenciunas. If you haven’t read it already, check out Holly MacKenzie’s profile of the big Lithuanian rookie. DeMar DeRozan can be DElightful on offense as a second option, but DEcidedly not the guy who takes the last shot. Jose Calderone is a very good back-up point and fill-in guard, and Landry Fields is dependable, if overpaid.

This team improved from one of the worst defenses in the league during the 2010-11 season, to a mediocre defensive team last season (14th in the league). The emphasis head coach, Dwyane Casey, has put on defense has paid off. Jonas will certainly add to that as well.

I see them as a top 10 defensive team, and an 8 seed in the East. You heard me right. Eat your heart out Chris Bosh.

*All bets via Bovada

21 notes

6 months ago

Southwest Dvision Preview*

San Antonio Spurs

Over/Under 55 1/2 - OVER

I wrote about the Spurs for Sportsgrid (as well as the Nets and Kings, but I’m ignoring the Cavs-Wizards opening game for this, so I’m gonna just point you towards the Sports Grid preview and get back to watching the—real, in terms of time—opening game of the season).

Basically with Popovich, one full training camp for Kawhi Leonard, plus Timmy, Tony and Manu, this team is gonna be at, or near, the top of the Western Conference all regular season, and they’ll again be competing with the Thunder and Lakers to get to the Finals. I wouldn’t put it past them succeeding this time, either. Bonus points if you spot my Splitter joke in the tags.

Memphis Grizzlies

Over/Under 48 1/2 - OVER

Marc Gasol is healthy and so is Zach Randolph. Let me repeat: the Gasol-Randolph front court engorgement is healthy! Huzzah! Rudy Gay, Mike Conley Jr, and Tony Allen round out a Memphis starting team that can hang with anyone in the league. Unfortunately, once you start going into the rest of the rotation, there’s a big drop-off.

You can sell me on Jerryd Bayless as Conley’s backup at point, and even Marreese (not a typo) Speights has some upside, but Wayne Ellington, Haddadi and Quincy Poindexter as the other second stringers is missing offense (notably lacking on the bench is OJ Mayo, who signed with Dallas). They really, really need shooters, but didn’t get any shooters. Conley and Gay are their lone 3-point threats and they habitually settle for long-range 2’s.

But that front court combo of Gasol and Randolph is the best in the league not including Marc’s older bro, so they’ll cover and then some. They might even host a playoff series.

New Orleans Hornets

Over/Under 27 1/2 - OVER

Perhaps Stern’s most masterful, not to mention unscrupulous, move was nixing the HOU/NOR/LAL deal that would have landed the Lakers Chris Paul. The Lakers rebounded aight—though Odom didn’t—and New Orleans certainly did when they landed the top pick in last summer’s draft. We don’t need to get into Houston, but grabbing and signing Harden long term, probably saved Morey his job.

The Hornets landed Anthony Davis, a game changer of a big man that moves like he’s 6 feet tall and makes the Hoop Speak and Hardwood Paroxysm crowd wax poetic about his defensive prowess. Ryan Andersen and Eric Gordon can score, if they’re healthy (not an insignificant issue with Gordon), Greivis Vasquez is the perfect pass-first point for Gordon to be teamed with. Al-Farouq-Aminu is…still on his rookie deal.

This team isn’t bad, and everything I’ve read and watched on Youtube, makes it seem like any team Davis is starting for can get over the 30 win hurdle. This is an easy one, if he stays healthy and plays up to his capability (not 100%, but close), and Gordon can get on the floor somewhat resembling his first couple years in Los Angeles.

Houston Rockets

Over/Under 30 1/2 - UNDER (without Harden) OVER (with him)

I took these snapshots of Bovada before Harden’s trade to Houston, so I’d take the over now, but before the trade, they were headed for a lottery pick.

Jeremy Lin teamed with Harden’s ball-handling could be excellent and those high screens Harden likes, will become easy assists for Lin. After their new backcourt, it’s gonna come down to the reserve Center from Chicago: Omer Asik. He’s the sabermetric wet dream, but you have to remember he only averaged 14.1 minutes last season behind Noah in Chicago. He’s a tenacious rebounder on the defensive glass, and seems to have figured out the footwork and foresight necessary to block from the weak side. Bloggers have loved him this preseason, but lets see how he fares against starting units as the man down low for Houston.

Other than that, I think they’ll struggle defensively if Asik gets in foul trouble. They’re significantly better with Harden, a huge upgrade over Kevin Martin and his funky jumper, but Patrick Patterson isn’t a real starter, and Royce White isn’t there yet. That being said, they’re so much better than I thought just a week ago. GREAT TRADE for this team.

Daryl Morey is a mensch, and he’s again got his team with the talent to hover around .500 this season after picking up the beard. And we all thought he had swung big this off-season and whiffed. Yeesh, Morey is a baller.

Dallas Mavericks

Over/Under 42 1/2 - OVER

I don’t think Dallas will be over 42 by a lot, but they’re gonna win at least one or two more than that number if Dirk can get back onto the court within 20 games. Their big pick-ups this off-season, if you can call them “big,” were Darren Collison, Chris Kaman and Elton Brand. Brand was a great sign from Philly, where he was one of their better defenders on last year’s surprising second round playoff team. Collison is a legitimate starter in this league, and before George Hill took his spot, he was a solid point for the playoff bound Pacers. Chris Kaman has an offensive game, but is murder on defense and always injured.

It all rests on Dirk. If he can get back to 100% before the all-star break—sorta like he did last year when he sat out a few games early—they’re gonna make the playoffs and finish near Houston and other lower seed playoff teams.

*All bets via Bovada

5 notes

6 months ago

Central Division Preview*

Chicago Bulls

Over/Under 47 1/2 - OVER

Tom Thibodeau’s culture of defense and hustle in Chicago will offset the delayed return of their all-world point guard. Boozer’s contract will again block 35+ minutes of Taj Gibson, and the outcry about the loss of Omer Asik is making me think he’s this years DPOY, when he’s really just a tough defender, and little else. Kirk Hinrich is again battling injuries, so whether he fills in full-time for Rose is up to his body. Thankfully, Marquis Teague showed me enough last year that I don’t think they’re gonna get burned too bad at the point spot; although, Derrick Rose might be the best point guard in the league when he’s healthy, so it’s gonna be a large drop-off no matter who fills in for him.

Joakim Noah, if healthy, is one of the best low-post defenders in the league, and not a total calamity on the offensive end, with a jerky game that’s surprisingly effective in the paint. Rip is healthy and that could mean the difference for a team that will struggle to find buckets. Luol Deng is stil the dang-iest role player around: he plays tough “d” (like every player on a Thibodeau-coached team), but he’s also solid for 17 and 9 on a nightly basis.

Can Boozer play better? That’s a big question and one you should keep track of as the season progresses. This team will finish better than a lot of people expect, and I think they’ll be in the running for home-court in the first round depending on when Rose comes back. I’d like to see Chicago keep him out all season, but I’m not from Chicago.

They’re definitely better than 47 wins. How much more rests on Thibs’ boulder-like shoulders.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Over/Under 30 1/2 - OVER

Kyrie Irving is poised to make the jump to a top 15 player in the league this season. That’s been the common refrain from most NBA prognosticators, and I’m in agreement. I think he’s already in the Deron Williams/Steve Nash level and might make the jump to the first tier soon. Aside from Irving, this team is dreadful.

Alonzo Gee is starting at power forward! That’s more than enough to off-set Varejao’s floppy-headed brilliance and anything Dion Waiters might bring to the table; currently, Waiters is behind C.J. Miles & Gibson for the 2 spot.

This team isn’t very good in real life or on paper, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Varejao is traded for money/expiring contracts/draft picks sometime mid-season. That doesn’t really matter when picking the over. Kyrie Irving is that good. Cleveland has struck gold again in the lottery. I just hope he stays healthy. If he doesn’t, the Cavaliers will be WAY under, and they’ll also get a nice lottery pick. I just concur with most of the experts that this will be a huge year for him. Keep rubbing a rabbit foot, Clevelanders, he has to stay healthy for you to do anything this season.

Detroit Pistons

Over/Under 31 1/2 - OVER

This team is gonna sneak up on some people. Jonas Jerebko, Greg Monroe and Tayshaun Prince are one of the finest front courts in the Eastern Conference, and based off preseason footage (again, I’m not a big believer in the preseason), Joe Drummond looks fantastic. Rodney Stuckey’s move to off-guard and the emergence of Brandon Knight, means the Pistons are on the up and up.

I doubt Charlie Villanueva will be playing much, and Austin Daye is still a weird tweener (height for PF, girth for SF), with a pretty jumper that’s not as accurate as you’d think. Corey Magette is still a professional when it comes to going to the free throw line, but he doesn’t do anything other than that. If the Pistons second team were to be featured prominently, I’d be less assured they’d achieve the over. But I’m guessing head coach, Lawrence Frank, will sometimes have Drummond and Monroe on the court at the same time, and I like there chances as long as he keeps his rotation 7 or 8 deep and resists the urge to play a lot of their bench yokels.

Indiana Pacers

Over/Under 51 1/2 - UNDER

Never trust a guy after signing a big contract. If it were anyone else, I might agree with this sentiment, but Roy Hibbert really gives a shit. A lot of NBA players that finally get their big pay day might sacrifice their work ethic, but not Hibbert. Look for him to continue to improve this year, flash mob Gangham style dancing, notwithstanding.

Unfortunately, it won’t be enough even with another 7-footer, Ian Mahinmi, backing him up. George Hill is now the only point guard, after dealing Darren Collison to Dallas as part of the Mahinmi deal, and I’m still not sold on him as a starting point guard that can produce for 30+ minutes a game. Danny Granger continues to man the small forward spot and shoot up barely contested mid-range jumpers in the process; this is not a good thing. They’re the least efficient shot in the game and even though a smooth jumper is a sight to behold, it’s not gonna win you basketball games.

David West is back for one more year, but he has to stay healthy, and Paul George is entering his 3rd year. George is the one that everything rests on and he’s got a little too much Rudy Gay in his character for me to be positive about his brilliance moving forward. If George makes the leap and becomes one of the best off-guards in the game (somethign that’s there for him to do), then they’ll shatter this over/under, but if he continues to look passive on offense and doesn’t take the reins from Granger, look for this team to surprise no one on their way to a possible road series in the opening round of the playoffs.

They need Larry back, is what I’m really trying to say.

Milwaukee Bucks

Over/Under 36 1/2 - UNDER

Monta Ellis got involved in the passing game after coming over from Golden State mid-way through last season. His assist numbers were impressive for a guy that’s usually known as a gunner. That being said, I don’t trust a back-court of Monta and Brandon Jennings. Jennings still has a problem hitting shots at the rim; he drives wildly and can’t finish as well when he contorts to avoid larger players, and he’s not the finest defender, being small enough that opposing guards can back him down.

It’s not a good sign that Sam Dalembert has played for four different teams over the last three years, but he’s a presence at least in the middle, and he’ll get spelled often by the triumvirate of the unpronounceable front court bench guys: Ekpe Udoh, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Ursan Ilyasova. But Drew Gooden and his funky facial hair is still starting at the 4, and Mike Dunleavy Jr. is a solid small forward who plays hard and still shoots well.

With all those pieces, this team will only go as far as their back-court takes them, and with little toughness on the back-line, I don’t think it will be that far. This team is supposed to contend for a playoff spot in the East, but I think they’ll be lottery bound unless they deal Jennings before he beomes a restricted free agent this summer.

*All bets via Bovada

9 notes

6 months ago

Pacific Division Preview*

Los Angeles Clippers

Over/Under 49 1/2 - UNDER

The Clippers added some nice players this off-season, even if they waited until September to name Gary Sacks their Vice President of Basketball Operations. They picked up Jamal Crawford, a gunner-for-hire; they brought Lamar Odom back to Los Angeles, 40 pounds heavier and with a psyche even more weighted down from his failed time in Dallas and the continued marriage to a Kardashian (even if it’s the Kardashian sister all other women love). They signed Grant Hill, for defense, primarily, and they got mainstays Blake Griffin and Chris Paul healthy. So why do I think they’ll go under?

Teams will be ready for this squad, and with Vinny Del Negro still the coach, you can be sure teams will take advantage of their remedial offensive sets. Yes, Chris Paul is still Chris Paul, the best PG in the game, but he’s more of a slow-it-down point with multiple knee injuries on his resume, and DeAndre Jordan and Blake want to get out and run. Slowing it down will mean less easy buckets.

It’s good they ditched Nick Young and his shoot-first at all costs play, but it’s bad news they lost Reggie Evans who got a lot of playing time at the end of games last season because of Jordan’s foul line troubles and Blake needing rest or battling fouls. Look for the Clippers to contend and make the playoffs, but I wouldn’t give them home-court in the first round, and they won’t have an epic comeback in game 1 to steal a series, either.

It might be back to the drawing board for the Clippers, especially if Chris Paul doesn’t re-sign this summer and bolts for somewhere else (New York? Crossing fingers)

Los Angeles Lakers

Over/Under 58 - UNDER

Ah yes, the summer of 2012 was kind to this Lakers squad. They picked up two more future hall-of-famers and set themselves up to contend—really contend, unlike the last two years—for the next decade. But picking up Dwight and Nash doesn’t alleviate all of their problems.

New teams like this need time to develop, and the Lakers were the only team to go without a win in the preseason. Preseason is stupid when trying to determine how teams will play once the real games start, but the Lakers still don’t really know how to use Dwight. They’re still stuck behind the Kobe Bryant superstar disease, to the detriment of Nash and Pau.

If Nash and Pau figure out a way to run the high screen & roll at least 8-10 times a game, the league had better hold their collective breath one of them gets injured. They could be that devastating. If the Lakers forget about getting the ball down low to Howard, and instead let him pick-up offensive rebounds, and lob dunks from Nash and Kobe, they’ll be borderline unstoppable on offense. That is, if Kobe doesn’t keep stopping the ball for his me-first heroics.

Metta W_____ P____ is in great condition and can defend the LeBron and Durant’s of the world, but Kobe isn’t a top-flight defender anymore, and if Dwight is out with foul trouble or an injury—as he continues to recover from back surgery—the Lakers will be easy to score on; Nash, specifically, is a defensive liability and will continue to be so until he retires and has his bust is created in Springfield.

The Lakers got a big break when Harden was sent to Houston, but I don’t see them getting by San Antonio AND Oklahoma City to set-up the Finals match-up against Miami a lot of people are predicting. They’ll underwhelm this year, but next year will probably be Kobe’s last, and I could see him going out with a title after this group takes a year to mesh. Also, maybe Mitch Kupchak wants to fire Mike Brown. With this line-up to trot out and start games, I’m pretty sure the Zen Master could be intrigued to come back and compare back injuries with Dwight.

Golden State Warriors

Over/Under 36 1/2 - UNDER

If this team gets healthy, and Andrew Bogut can play something like 70 games this season, they could contend for the playoffs, but by going under here, I’m guessing Bogut will continue to struggle to stay on the court even in the soothing air of Northern Cali.

Stephen Curry is also a question mark as he comes back from an ankle injury. Maybe it’s his lean physique, but Curry just seems more injury-prone possibly for the remainder of his career. Think about what happened to another lightening quick point guard with less than 190 pounds on his frame: Curry reminds me a lot of Shuan Livingston, who is still kicking around the league, but is nothing like the player he was when he came out of high school. Curry’s offensive exploits during his rookie year have been off-set by the injuries most of the last two seasons, so it remains to be seen whether he can get back to the level that saw them deal Monta to make way for more Curry.

Klay Thompson is a legit starter and then-some at the off-guard, and Jarret Jack is an above-average replacement if Curry runs into more injuries. Andris Biedrins is still recovering form confidence issues and can barely find the rim on free throws. David Lee is one of the best power forwards in the league…on the offensive end, and possibly the worst front court defender in the league. Bogut was supposed to off-set that, but we’ll see. He still has to get on the court.

Everything hinges on remaining healthy, and I just don’t see that happening. Hopefully, the awesome Bay area fans won’t have to deal with Tankapalooza Redux this season, but unless they stay healthy, they won’t sniff the playoffs.

Phoenix Suns

Over/Under 32 1/2 - UNDER

The loss of their franchise ~~point guard~~ to Los Angeles is really gonna hurt. Goran Dragic is one of the top 20 point guards in the league, but he’s no Steve Nash. Marcin Gortat and Dragic will run a few solid pick & rolls this season, but Gortat isn’t the best help defender, and Dragic hasn’t really been a starting point guard for a full NBA season yet; there will be growing pains.

Picking up Luis Scola, one of the wiliest front court players in the league, is huge, and especially since they claimed him off Houston’s waivers for something like 3 years $13.5 million. Michael Beasley is still Michael Beasley, but maybe Phoenix’s front office can corral his more pedestrian attitudes. They’ve got an OK little starting line-up here, but no prominent scorers and no player within the NBA’s top 20, or even top 30 overall. Not sure how far they’re gonna go without any honest-to-God superstars. Their defense will again be weak, and there’s no Nash to lead by example.

Don’t expect Phoenix to be contending for a playoff spot so late again this season. They’re rebuilding in a post-Nash era. One that promises to be a lot less exciting.

Sacramento Kings

Over/Under 30 1/2 - OVER

Their lineup is a hodgepodge of problem childs that could break down and end up fighting each other for shots, both literally and figuratively. Isaiah Thomas made a name for himself last season, and won the point guard slot from Tyreke Evans, who is over playing the 3 now. I really like Thomas, but he deserves better than this squad of gunners. With Marcus Thornton shooting a ton from the 2 spot, you can be sure there will be fireworks with his back-up, Aaron Brooks. That’s 3 of 4 backcourt players with a history of playing me-first basketball, and there might be simply too few possessions to make them all happy. Also, John Salmons and his horrendus contract is backing up Evans at the 3, so that’s another guy that thinks he should shoot whenever he enters the game.

I like Jason Thompson at the 4, especially for highlights, and Thomas Robinson is a good back-up. Chuck Hayes is more than a solid back-up for Cousins, and he’s easily one of the best front court defenders in the league; too bad that will be almost-entirely wasted on this group, who never met a shot they didn’t like.

Plus, DeMarcus “Boogie” Cousins should be an all-star this season. He’s improved his first two seasons, and his Team USA experience probably poured even more fuel on the fire that actually more resembles a chip on his shoulder. There is a lot of talent on this team, and it’s gonna be up to Keith Smart to harness it all. I think there will be a fight in the locker-room, but Smart’s smarts and Cousins’s expanding offensive game, plus his ability to rebound, will get them to 31 wins, and possibly more. They’re still too offensive-minded to contend for a playoff spot, and all of this might fall apart when they’re moved over the summer.

It’s a tough time to be a Kings fan, but there is talent. Too bad they’re all gonna hate each other by March.

*All bets via Bovada

19 notes

6 months ago